El Niño's Impact on Irish Agriculture: What Farmers Need to Know

Introduction 

When Irish farmers think about the biggest threats facing their businesses, they tend to focus on challenges closer to home: rising costs, changing regulations, labour shortages, weather extremes, and fluctuating commodity prices are all issues that directly impact day-to-day farming.

Few, however, think about ocean temperatures in the Pacific Ocean.

Yet one of the most influential climate phenomena on the planet, El Niño,  has the potential to affect everything from grass growth and livestock performance to feed costs, global food supplies, and farm profitability.

With the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) warning that there is an 80% chance of El Niño developing between June and August 2026, rising to around 90% later in the year, farmers across the world are watching developments closely.

For Irish agriculture, understanding El Niño is becoming increasingly important.

What Exactly Is El Niño

El Niño is a naturally occurring climate phenomenon that develops when sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean become warmer than normal.

It forms part of a larger climate cycle known as the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), which alternates between:

• El Niño (warmer Pacific waters).
• La Niña (cooler Pacific waters).
• Neutral conditions.

El Niño events typically occur every two to seven years and generally last between nine and twelve months.

Scientists regard ENSO as one of the most important drivers of global climate variability because it influences rainfall patterns, temperatures, storms, droughts, and agricultural production across large parts of the world.

Although the phenomenon develops thousands of kilometres away from Ireland, its influence can ripple through weather systems and global agricultural markets worldwide.

Why is El Niño such a big deal?

The reason scientists pay so much attention to El Niño is its ability to disrupt normal weather patterns across entire continents.

A strong El Niño can contribute to:

• Severe droughts.
• Intense rainfall and flooding.
• Heatwaves.
• Water shortages.
• Crop failures.
• Food supply disruptions.

The most recent El Niño event during 2023 and 2024 was among the five strongest ever recorded and contributed to record global temperatures.

For agriculture, weather extremes can have enormous consequences. Droughts reduce crop yields, floods damage infrastructure and farmland, while heatwaves place additional stress on livestock and water supplies.

When these impacts occur simultaneously across several major food-producing regions, the effects can be felt in agricultural markets around the world.

Ireland Has Already Experienced Unusual Weather Conditions

Irish farmers have seen first-hand how weather patterns are becoming increasingly unpredictable.

The country experienced one of its wettest periods on record during 2023 and early 2024, creating significant challenges for grazing, slurry spreading, tillage operations, and fodder production.

More recently, Ireland experienced an unusually warm spell during May 2026, with temperatures exceeding 30°C in some locations and provisional readings reaching 30.9°C.

While scientists are careful not to directly attribute individual weather events to El Niño alone, they do acknowledge that El Niño can contribute to higher global temperatures and increased weather variability.

For farmers, increasing variability often matters more than average temperatures.

The challenge is no longer simply preparing for a wet year or a dry year. Increasingly, farms must be prepared for both.

What Could This Mean for Grass Growth?

Ireland's agricultural success has been built largely on its ability to grow grass efficiently.

The country's mild climate and reliable rainfall have traditionally given Irish farmers a competitive advantage over many international competitors.

However, prolonged periods of dry weather can quickly reduce grass growth.

Irish farmers experienced this during the drought of 2018.

Research conducted by Teagasc found that grass dry matter production was reduced by approximately 3 to 3.5 tonnes per hectare on average during the drought period.

The consequences were significant:

• Earlier supplementary feeding.
• Increased concentrate purchases.
• Higher forage demand.
• Increased winter fodder pressure.

For dairy, beef, and sheep enterprises, reduced grass growth directly impacts profitability because grass remains the cheapest feed source available.

If climate variability increases, maintaining larger fodder reserves may become increasingly important. 

Livestock Could Face Greater Heat Stress

Historically, heat stress has not been viewed as a major issue in Irish agriculture.

However, warmer summers and more frequent hot spells could begin to change that.

When temperatures rise, livestock performance can suffer.

Dairy Cattle
Heat stress can lead to:

• Reduced feed intake.
• Lower milk yields.
• Reduced fertility.
• Increased water consumption.

Beef Cattle
Higher temperatures may result in:

• Lower daily liveweight gains.
• Reduced grazing activity.
• Increased stress levels.

Sheep
Warm conditions can contribute to:

• Increased parasite burdens.
• Reduced grazing performance.
• Greater water requirements.

Research shows that cattle may require 1.5 to 2 times more water during hot weather than under normal conditions.

For farms relying on wells or private water supplies, this can create significant challenges during prolonged dry periods.

The Biggest Impact May Come Through Feed Prices

For many Irish farmers, the most significant impact of El Niño may not come from Irish weather at all.

Instead, it may come through global agricultural markets.

Many of the world's largest agricultural exporters are particularly vulnerable to El Niño-related weather disruptions.

These include:

• Brazil.
• Argentina.
• Australia.
• India.
• Indonesia.

Collectively, these countries produce vast quantities of:

• Soybeans.
• Maize.
• Wheat.
  
• Rice.
  
• Sugar.

When droughts, floods, or heatwaves reduce production, global supplies can tighten and prices often increase.

For Irish farmers, this can result in:

• Higher feed costs.
• More expensive grain.
• Increased market volatility.
• Greater pressure on margins.

This is especially important for:

• Dairy farms.
• Pig enterprises.
• Poultry producers.
• Intensive beef finishing systems.

Even if Irish weather remains relatively favourable, global market disruptions can still affect profitability.

Could There Be Any Benefits?

While El Niño creates risks, it can also create opportunities.

If adverse weather reduces agricultural production in major exporting nations, global commodity prices can strengthen.

This can potentially support:

• Milk prices.
• Beef prices.
• Grain prices.
• Export demand.

For example, drought conditions in major dairy-exporting countries such as New Zealand can reduce milk production, tightening global supplies and supporting international dairy markets.

However, stronger output prices are only beneficial if they outweigh rising production costs.

For many Irish farmers, the real issue is maintaining a healthy margin rather than simply achieving a higher selling price.

Why Farmers Should Pay Attention

It can be tempting to dismiss El Niño as a distant weather event with little relevance to Ireland.

The reality is very different.

Modern agriculture operates within a highly interconnected global system. Weather disruptions affecting crops in Brazil, dairy production in New Zealand, or grain harvests in Australia can quickly influence Irish agriculture through prices, supply chains, and market conditions.

With a strong likelihood of El Niño developing during 2026, farmers should be paying close attention.

Conclusion

El Niño may begin in the Pacific Ocean, but its effects can be felt across the globe.

Whether through changing weather patterns, reduced crop production, tighter feed supplies, rising input costs, or shifting commodity markets, Irish farmers are far from insulated from its impact.

The recent spell of temperatures exceeding 30°C in Ireland serves as a reminder that weather extremes are becoming more common and that agriculture is operating in an increasingly uncertain climate.

Understanding El Niño is not simply about understanding the weather.

It is about understanding risk, protecting profitability, and ensuring Irish farms remain resilient in a world where events thousands of kilometres away can increasingly influence what happens at home.

*By Anne Hayden MSc., Founder, The Informed Farmer Consultancy.